Groningen vs PEC Zwolle – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 7 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 1 for PEC Zwolle and 5 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 58% and PEC Zwolle 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 58% | PEC Zwolle 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.97 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.044 / defence 0.936 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.950 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Data: 38 Groningen games / 38 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 33%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 3.03. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 80% | PEC Zwolle 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 45% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Groningen 1.97 / PEC Zwolle 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.044 / def 0.936 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.950 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Groningen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.67
PEC Zwolle xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 45% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Groningen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (6 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 5 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.44
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.64
1.67
PEC Zwolle xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
5%
21.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 8.6 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Groningen and 1.67 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 16W 6D 16L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 18L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.42 PPG, PEC Zwolle on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 8W 4D 7L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 2W 6D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.63 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PEC Zwolle's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.26 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 16W 6D 16L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Groningen's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.47 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Groningen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Groningen
5
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 0, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when PEC Zwolle 1-1 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Groningen at 58%, PEC Zwolle at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Groningen and 74% for PEC Zwolle. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PEC Zwolle?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Groningen's games and 84% of PEC Zwolle's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Groningen's matches and 74% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Groningen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.