Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Euroborg to take on Groningen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Groningen have posted 4W 4D 2L at Euroborg — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NEC Nijmegen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, NEC Nijmegen have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Groningen at 1.20 PPG versus NEC Nijmegen's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Groningen's 20% and NEC Nijmegen's 20% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Groningen have won 1, NEC Nijmegen 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 0–6 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Groningen in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
NEC Nijmegen in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 44% versus NEC Nijmegen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 51% | NEC Nijmegen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.08 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.617 / defence 0.681 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.818 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.390. Groningen's attack strength of 0.617 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 21 Groningen games / 54 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 26%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | NEC Nijmegen 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Groningen are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 20% | NEC Nijmegen 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 42% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Groningen 1.08 / NEC Nijmegen 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.617 / def 0.681 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.818 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Groningen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.77
NEC Nijmegen xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Groningen 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 42% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Groningen and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 1 | NEC Nijmegen 3W.
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in?
Groningen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.62) and NEC Nijmegen's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
42%
2.38
32%
3.09
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Groningen xG
Total xG
1.86
0.77
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Groningen and 0.77 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 25W 14D 16L from 55 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 20L across 55 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Groningen on 1.62 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 15W 8D 3L from 26 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Groningen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 9W 7D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NEC Nijmegen in 60%.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 25W 14D 16L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Groningen's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.04 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Groningen or NEC Nijmegen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, NEC Nijmegen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2024, when NEC Nijmegen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
1
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Groningen 2-1 NEC Nijmegen.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 35%, NEC Nijmegen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Groningen) and 62% (NEC Nijmegen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 31% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Groningen's recent matches and 50% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Groningen's matches and 62% of NEC Nijmegen's.
Do Groningen and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Groningen edge out NEC Nijmegen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat NEC Nijmegen 2-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.08 xG and NEC Nijmegen 0.77 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Groningen beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.62 / defence 0.68 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 42% | Draw 32% | NEC Nijmegen 26%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 51%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Groningen 1.62 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.