Groningen 0-1 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Groningen at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Groningen host Fortuna Sittard at Euroborg in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen's home record at Euroborg: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Sittard stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Groningen have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Groningen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Fortuna Sittard in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Groningen, 0 for Fortuna Sittard and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 4–1 with Groningen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games).
Fortuna Sittard trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 62% and Fortuna Sittard 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 43% | Fortuna Sittard 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.63 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.835 / defence 0.959 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.702 / defence 1.721. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.323. Fortuna Sittard bring a strong defensive rating of 1.721 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Groningen games / 21 Fortuna Sittard games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 20%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fortuna Sittard 5.00. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Groningen 60% | Fortuna Sittard 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Groningen 1.63 / Fortuna Sittard 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.835 / def 0.959 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.702 / def 1.721 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Groningen (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Fortuna Sittard xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Groningen 0 - 1 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 54% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Groningen and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (1 meetings): Groningen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Groningen's attack rating (0.83) and Fortuna Sittard's defence rating (1.72), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Sittard's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.97
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.52
0.89
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
4%
25.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Groningen and 0.89 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Sittard, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 13L across 21 games — 0.76 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Sittard heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 2W 6D 2L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fortuna Sittard's away record stands at 1W 2D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.10 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Groningen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Fortuna Sittard in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 4W 4D 13L in their last 21 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Groningen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.20 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Groningen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting Fortuna Sittard specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
5
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
From 8 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Groningen and Fortuna Sittard?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 60%, Fortuna Sittard 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Groningen and 60% for Fortuna Sittard.
On the defensive side: Groningen have failed to score in 30% of games; Fortuna Sittard in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Groningen's games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Groningen's recent games and 60% of Fortuna Sittard's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Groningen and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fortuna Sittard defy the odds to beat Groningen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard beat Groningen 0-1 at Euroborg, Regular Season - 22, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.63 xG and Fortuna Sittard 0.89 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Groningen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.70 / defence 1.72, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 54% | Draw 25% | Fortuna Sittard 20%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Fortuna Sittard win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 43%, Fortuna Sittard 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Sittard winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.