Fortuna Sittard 1-4 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard host Groningen at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortuna Sittard — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 games at Fortuna Sittard Stadion this term (1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Fortuna Sittard are significantly better at Fortuna Sittard Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Groningen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Groningen — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Sittard in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Groningen in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 75% and Groningen 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 67% | Groningen 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.35 xG and Groningen 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.794 / defence 1.487 | Groningen attack 0.678 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.374. Fortuna Sittard's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Fortuna Sittard's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Fortuna Sittard games / 13 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 26% | Groningen 38%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Groningen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Groningen at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 67% | Groningen 57% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 26% | Groningen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.35 / Groningen 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.794 / def 1.487 | Groningen attack 0.678 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Groningen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Groningen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 4 Groningen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 36% chance of winning, Groningen a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Groningen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Groningen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Groningen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortuna Sittard's attack rating (0.79) and Groningen's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Fortuna Sittard's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.90
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.74
1.39
Groningen xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
10%
10.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.39 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 3D 7L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 2W 5D 5L from 12 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Sittard on 0.75 PPG, Groningen on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.17 PPG from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Fortuna Sittard are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Groningen have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Sittard come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and Groningen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Groningen have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or Groningen away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.17 PPG; Groningen away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Sittard and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Groningen won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Sittard's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 5, Groningen have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Groningen 1-2 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and Groningen?
Fortuna Sittard have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 67%, Groningen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Fortuna Sittard and 67% for Groningen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 50% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 67% of Groningen's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and Groningen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Groningen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Groningen run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Fortuna Sittard 1-4 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.35 xG and Groningen 1.39 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 1.39 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.79 / defence 1.49 against Groningen attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 12/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 36% | Draw 26% | Groningen 38%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 67%, Groningen 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 0.75 PPG, Groningen 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.