Fortuna Sittard 0-3 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar meet at Fortuna Sittard Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Fortuna Sittard have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AZ Alkmaar (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
AZ Alkmaar hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2023, ended 1–3 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Sittard 58% and AZ Alkmaar 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 63% | AZ Alkmaar 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.898 / defence 1.199 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.162 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.277. Data: 62 Fortuna Sittard games / 62 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 51%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | AZ Alkmaar 1.96. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Sittard 30% | AZ Alkmaar 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Fortuna Sittard 1.15 / AZ Alkmaar 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 0.898 / def 1.199 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.162 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.78
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Fortuna Sittard 0 - 3 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 23% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 0W | Draws 0 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fortuna Sittard's attack rating (0.90) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AZ Alkmaar's attack (1.16x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
23%
4.35
26%
3.78
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
2.93
1.78
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.35
23%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
17%
5.93
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
4%
25.78
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.78 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Fortuna Sittard have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 19W 10D 33L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 35W 13D 14L from 62 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Sittard have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (9W 5D 16L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 5D 10L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.98 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 73%.
Last 62 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Current Season
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 10D 33L in their last 62 games (1.08 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 35W 13D 14L in their last 62 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.07 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AZ Alkmaar won 4-0 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Fortuna Sittard
0
Draws
8
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 2, AZ Alkmaar have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 47%, AZ Alkmaar 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Fortuna Sittard and 70% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Fortuna Sittard's games and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Fortuna Sittard's matches and 70% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Fortuna Sittard and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Fortuna Sittard.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Fortuna Sittard 0-3 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 1.15 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.78 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AZ Alkmaar outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 23% | Draw 26% | AZ Alkmaar 51%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 63%, AZ Alkmaar 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.