Feyenoord 4-0 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Sparta Rotterdam at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Feyenoord — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Sparta Rotterdam have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's away record: 1W 3D 5L from 9 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
On current form, Feyenoord have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Feyenoord, 0 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Feyenoord winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Feyenoord in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 45% versus Sparta Rotterdam 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 65% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 1.68 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.290 / defence 1.012 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.662 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.087 / away 1.358. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Feyenoord games / 20 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 55% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 20%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Sparta Rotterdam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 55% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Feyenoord 1.68 / Sparta Rotterdam 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.290 / def 1.012 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.662 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.087 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sparta Rotterdam xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord 4 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 55% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Sparta Rotterdam's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.92
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
2.59
0.91
Sparta Rotterdam xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
27.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.5 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Feyenoord and 0.91 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feyenoord come into this having played 20 games, going 13W 3D 4L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 0.70 PPG from 20 outings (2W 8D 10L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.40 PPG clear of Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Feyenoord's home form reads 6W 1D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 0.67 points per game from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Feyenoord are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 0.80 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 13W 3D 4L in their last 20 games (2.10 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 2W 8D 10L in their last 20 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.11 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Sparta Rotterdam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sparta Rotterdam in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Feyenoord won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
2
Draws
1
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Sparta Rotterdam have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Feyenoord 3-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 44%, Sparta Rotterdam 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Feyenoord) and 44% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Rotterdam in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Feyenoord's matches and 44% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Feyenoord and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feyenoord run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Sparta Rotterdam 4-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 1.68 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 0.91 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sparta Rotterdam landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.66 / defence 1.20, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 55% | Draw 25% | Sparta Rotterdam 20%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.