Feyenoord 0-0 Fortuna Sittard – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Fortuna Sittard.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard meet at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 August 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Feyenoord haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feyenoord have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadion Feijenoord — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fortuna Sittard's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fortuna Sittard haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Feyenoord's 2.70 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Fortuna Sittard's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fortuna Sittard in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Feyenoord have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 4 meetings, with Fortuna Sittard managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 4–2 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Fortuna Sittard half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 59% versus Fortuna Sittard 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 59% | Fortuna Sittard 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.08 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.077 / defence 0.869 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.888 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.801 / away 1.366. Data: 34 Feyenoord games / 34 Fortuna Sittard games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 17%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Fortuna Sittard 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 60% | Fortuna Sittard 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Aug 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 59% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Feyenoord 2.08 / Fortuna Sittard 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.077 / def 0.869 | Fortuna Sittard attack 0.888 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.801 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kick off?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 August 2023 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord 0 - 0 Fortuna Sittard.
Where is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard part of?
Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 59% chance of winning, Fortuna Sittard a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
Record (4 meetings): Feyenoord 3W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Sittard 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Feyenoord (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Fortuna Sittard's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.08. Flip it around — Fortuna Sittard's attack (0.89x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.25
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.13
1.05
Fortuna Sittard xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
46.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.05 for Fortuna Sittard, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.41 PPG on a 25W 7D 2L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. Feyenoord haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fortuna Sittard's form line: 10W 6D 18L from 34 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D. Fortuna Sittard haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.35 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fortuna Sittard.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.35 PPG from 17 outings (12W 4D 1L).
On the road, Fortuna Sittard have gone 5W 2D 10L from 17 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Sittard are on 1.15 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
Fortuna Sittard
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 25W 7D 2L in their last 34 games (2.41 PPG), while Fortuna Sittard have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Fortuna Sittard away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.35 PPG; Fortuna Sittard away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Fortuna Sittard been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Fortuna Sittard in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-0 on 5 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Sittard — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
3
Draws
0
Fortuna Sittard
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
From 10 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Fortuna Sittard have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Fortuna Sittard 1-2 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 47%, Fortuna Sittard 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Feyenoord and 76% for Fortuna Sittard. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Fortuna Sittard away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Fortuna Sittard?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Feyenoord's games and 71% of Fortuna Sittard's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Feyenoord's matches and 76% of Fortuna Sittard's.
Do Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Fortuna Sittard in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Feyenoord's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 1, as Feyenoord and Fortuna Sittard drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.08 xG and Fortuna Sittard 1.05 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Fortuna Sittard landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.08 / defence 0.87 against Fortuna Sittard attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 59% | Draw 24% | Fortuna Sittard 17%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 59%, Fortuna Sittard 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.41 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Sittard (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.