Feyenoord 3-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feyenoord vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feyenoord host Cambuur at Stadion Feijenoord in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Feyenoord have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cambuur — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Feyenoord carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Feyenoord, 0 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 3–2 with Feyenoord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 41% versus Cambuur 73%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Feyenoord 64% | Cambuur 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 2.06 xG and Cambuur 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.416 / defence 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.947 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.371. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Feyenoord games / 22 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 57% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 22%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Feyenoord 40% | Cambuur 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 57% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Feyenoord 2.06 / Cambuur 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.416 / def 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.947 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Cambuur xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Cambuur kick off?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Feyenoord 3 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Feyenoord vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Cambuur part of?
Feyenoord vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 57% chance of winning, Cambuur a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Feyenoord and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Feyenoord 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Feyenoord's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Feyenoord's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.73
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
3.27
1.22
Cambuur xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.73
21%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
3%
35.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.22 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 15W 3D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur's form line: 9W 3D 10L from 22 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambuur.
Venue Form
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (8W 1D 2L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 5W 2D 4L from 11 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Feyenoord are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.73 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 73%.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 15W 3D 4L in their last 22 games (2.18 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 9W 3D 10L in their last 22 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Cambuur away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.27 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cambuur in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2023, when Feyenoord won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Feyenoord's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Feyenoord
0
Draws
0
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
From 4 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 4, Cambuur have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2023, when Cambuur 0-3 Feyenoord.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Cambuur?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cambuur see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 36%, Cambuur 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Feyenoord and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cambuur in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Feyenoord's recent matches and 54% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feyenoord vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Feyenoord's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do Feyenoord and Cambuur tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Cambuur 3-1 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 2.06 xG and Cambuur 1.22 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Feyenoord beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.42 / defence 0.94 against Cambuur attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 57% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 22%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 64%, Cambuur 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cambuur (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.