FC Volendam 1-2 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Telstar travel to Kras Stadion to take on FC Volendam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Volendam — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Telstar — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
FC Volendam hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Telstar, with 2 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC Volendam and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC Volendam trading profile (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Telstar trading profile (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 61% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Volendam 68% | Telstar 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.43 xG and Telstar 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.736 / defence 1.077 | Telstar attack 0.872 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.289. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 FC Volendam games / 33 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 33% | Telstar 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Telstar 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
FC Volendam dominate the H2H record, yet Telstar are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Volendam are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Telstar (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Volendam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | Telstar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Telstar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 38% | Draw 33% | Telstar 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Volendam 1.43 / Telstar 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.736 / def 1.077 | Telstar attack 0.872 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Telstar xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Telstar kick off?
FC Volendam vs Telstar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
FC Volendam 1 - 2 Telstar.
Where is FC Volendam vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Telstar part of?
FC Volendam vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 38% chance of winning, Telstar a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Volendam and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 3W | Draws 2 | Telstar 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Telstar (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Volendam's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
38%
2.61
33%
2.99
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
2.63
1.21
Telstar xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
7%
14.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.21 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Volendam come into this having played 71 games, going 34W 12D 25L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.39 PPG from 71 outings (26W 21D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Volendam on 1.61 PPG, Telstar on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Volendam's home form reads 21W 5D 9L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 1.06 points per game from 35 outings (9W 10D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Volendam are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.62 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 34W 12D 25L in their last 71 games (1.61 PPG), while Telstar have gone 26W 21D 24L in their last 71 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Telstar away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.94 PPG; Telstar away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2021, when FC Volendam won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when FC Volendam 1-2 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Telstar?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 63%, Telstar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for FC Volendam and 49% for Telstar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Volendam's games and 54% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of FC Volendam's matches and 49% of Telstar's.
Do FC Volendam and Telstar tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Telstar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat FC Volendam 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat FC Volendam 1-2 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.43 xG and Telstar 1.21 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.74 / defence 1.08 against Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 38% | Draw 33% | Telstar 28%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Telstar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Telstar 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.61 PPG, Telstar 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.