FC Volendam 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Volendam at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kras Stadion plays host to FC Volendam versus GO Ahead Eagles in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 1 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's home record at Kras Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — FC Volendam are significantly better at Kras Stadion than their overall form suggests.
GO Ahead Eagles's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GO Ahead Eagles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GO Ahead Eagles's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for FC Volendam, 1.10 for GO Ahead Eagles — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, GO Ahead Eagles in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, GO Ahead Eagles have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to FC Volendam's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with GO Ahead Eagles winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. GO Ahead Eagles have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
GO Ahead Eagles goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 62% and GO Ahead Eagles 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 72% | GO Ahead Eagles 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.75 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.890 / defence 1.008 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.998 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.424. Data: 20 FC Volendam games / 53 GO Ahead Eagles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | GO Ahead Eagles 3.12. FC Volendam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Volendam as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Volendam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 80% | GO Ahead Eagles 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 45% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Volendam 1.75 / GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.890 / def 1.008 | GO Ahead Eagles attack 0.998 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.43
GO Ahead Eagles xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles kick off?
FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
FC Volendam 1 - 1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Where is FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles part of?
FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 45% chance of winning, GO Ahead Eagles a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles?
Record (5 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 0 | GO Ahead Eagles 5W.
What form are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. GO Ahead Eagles (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 0.89x the league average against GO Ahead Eagles's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GO Ahead Eagles's attack (1.00x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 20/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
45%
2.22
23%
4.30
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.18
1.43
GO Ahead Eagles xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
6%
18.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.4 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.43 for GO Ahead Eagles, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 29W 8D 16L from 53 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GO Ahead Eagles, meanwhile, have gone 18W 18D 17L across 53 games — 1.36 PPG, with D-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for GO Ahead Eagles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Volendam by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GO Ahead Eagles heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 18W 3D 6L from 27 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GO Ahead Eagles's away record stands at 5W 9D 13L across 27 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of GO Ahead Eagles's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; GO Ahead Eagles are on 1.64 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; GO Ahead Eagles in 60%.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
GO Ahead Eagles
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 29W 8D 16L in their last 53 games (1.79 PPG), while GO Ahead Eagles have gone 18W 18D 17L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or GO Ahead Eagles away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.11 PPG; GO Ahead Eagles away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GO Ahead Eagles won 3-0 on 21 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GO Ahead Eagles — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
1
Draws
5
GO Ahead Eagles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, GO Ahead Eagles have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when FC Volendam 1-1 GO Ahead Eagles.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles?
GO Ahead Eagles have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
GO Ahead Eagles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 67%, GO Ahead Eagles 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for FC Volendam and 63% for GO Ahead Eagles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GO Ahead Eagles in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / GO Ahead Eagles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play GO Ahead Eagles?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Volendam's games and 63% of GO Ahead Eagles's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs GO Ahead Eagles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of FC Volendam's matches and 63% of GO Ahead Eagles's.
Do FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, GO Ahead Eagles in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam and GO Ahead Eagles finished level at 1-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.75 xG and GO Ahead Eagles 1.43 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.89 / defence 1.01 against GO Ahead Eagles attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 20/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 45% | Draw 23% | GO Ahead Eagles 32%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 72%, GO Ahead Eagles 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
GO Ahead Eagles's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward. GO Ahead Eagles (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.