Excelsior 0-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 20 as Excelsior welcome Waalwijk to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Excelsior — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 5W 1D 4L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Waalwijk have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Excelsior) versus 1.20 (Waalwijk). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Excelsior, 1 for Waalwijk and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–5 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 58% and Waalwijk 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 62% | Waalwijk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.36 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.818 / defence 1.157 | Waalwijk attack 0.810 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.234. Data: 19 Excelsior games / 53 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 39% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 29%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Waalwijk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Waalwijk 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 39% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Excelsior 1.36 / Waalwijk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.818 / def 1.157 | Waalwijk attack 0.810 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Waalwijk xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Waalwijk kick off?
Excelsior vs Waalwijk kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Excelsior 0 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Excelsior vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Waalwijk part of?
Excelsior vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 39% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Excelsior and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Waalwijk in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.82) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
39%
2.58
32%
3.13
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.52
1.16
Waalwijk xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.16 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior's recent record stands at 22W 12D 19L from 53 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 20L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 12W 6D 8L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 4W 12D 10L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.34 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 22W 12D 19L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Waalwijk away?
Excelsior's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.62 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Waalwijk runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Excelsior
3
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Waalwijk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Excelsior 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Waalwijk?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 62%, Waalwijk at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 54% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Excelsior's games and 69% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 54% of Waalwijk's.
Do Excelsior and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 20, as Excelsior and Waalwijk drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.36 xG and Waalwijk 1.16 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.13, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 39% | Draw 32% | Waalwijk 29%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 62%, Waalwijk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.47 PPG, Waalwijk 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.