Excelsior 0-1 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utrecht at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 8 as Excelsior welcome Utrecht to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Utrecht — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Utrecht have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Utrecht away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Excelsior at 1.40 PPG versus Utrecht's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Utrecht trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 60% versus Utrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.87 xG and Utrecht 2.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.919 / defence 1.505 | Utrecht attack 1.243 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.313. Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Utrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 2.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Excelsior games / 41 Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 30% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 51%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.33 | Draw 5.26 | Utrecht 1.96. Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 2.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utrecht as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.32 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 80% | Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 30% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% | BTTS 77% | xG Excelsior 1.87 / Utrecht 2.46 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.919 / def 1.505 | Utrecht attack 1.243 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Utrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.46
Utrecht xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Utrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Utrecht kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Excelsior 0 - 1 Utrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Utrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Utrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 30% chance of winning, Utrecht a 51% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Excelsior and Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and Utrecht in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Utrecht (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (0.92) and Utrecht's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Utrecht's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.5%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.0%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
30%
3.38
19%
5.22
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Excelsior xG
Total xG
4.32
2.46
Utrecht xG
3.38
30%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
63%
Over 3.5
1.59
37%
Under 3.5
2.70
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.29
23%
BTTS No
4.40
Clean Sheet
9%
11.66
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
3%
39.44
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.46 for Utrecht, a combined total of 4.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 20W 11D 12L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Utrecht's form line: 15W 14D 14L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.65 PPG, Utrecht on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.71 PPG from 21 outings (10W 6D 5L).
On the road, Utrecht have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Utrecht away?
Excelsior's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.71 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Apr 2026, when Excelsior won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Utrecht specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
4
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Utrecht?
From 7 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, Utrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 67%, Utrecht 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Excelsior and 67% for Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 62% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Excelsior's matches and 67% of Utrecht's.
Do Excelsior and Utrecht tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Utrecht in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Excelsior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utrecht beat Excelsior 0-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.87 xG and Utrecht 2.46 xG, a combined 4.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Utrecht landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.92 / defence 1.50 against Utrecht attack 1.24 / defence 1.20, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 30% | Draw 19% | Utrecht 51%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 63% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Utrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.65 PPG, Utrecht 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Utrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.