Excelsior 1-6 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 4 as Excelsior welcome PSV Eindhoven to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PSV Eindhoven stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. PSV Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PSV Eindhoven away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. PSV Eindhoven's 2.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, PSV Eindhoven in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
PSV Eindhoven trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 61% and PSV Eindhoven 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 67% | PSV Eindhoven 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.67 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.069 / defence 1.080 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.461 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.450. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.461 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 2 Excelsior games / 36 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 28% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 52%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.57 | Draw 5.00 | PSV Eindhoven 1.92. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 2.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PSV Eindhoven at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 28% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 73% | xG Excelsior 1.67 / PSV Eindhoven 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.069 / def 1.080 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.461 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.29
PSV Eindhoven xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Excelsior 1 - 6 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 28% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 52% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.07) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PSV Eindhoven's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 2/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
28%
3.55
20%
5.01
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.3%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.95
2.29
PSV Eindhoven xG
3.55
28%
Home win
5.01
20%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
10%
9.83
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
3%
34.90
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.29 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 18W 11D 7L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PSV Eindhoven's form line: 28W 3D 5L from 36 games, 2.42 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PSV Eindhoven are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.67 PPG from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
On the road, PSV Eindhoven have gone 13W 3D 2L from 18 away games — 2.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 2.64 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
PSV Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 18W 11D 7L in their last 36 games (1.81 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 28W 3D 5L in their last 36 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.67 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Excelsior or PSV Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PSV Eindhoven in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PSV Eindhoven have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2022, when PSV Eindhoven won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting PSV Eindhoven specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, PSV Eindhoven have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 5-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 67%, PSV Eindhoven at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Excelsior and 78% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 67% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Excelsior's matches and 78% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do Excelsior and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat Excelsior 1-6 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.67 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.29 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.29 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.07 / defence 1.08 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.46 / defence 1.03, drawn from 2/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 28% | Draw 20% | PSV Eindhoven 52%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 74% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, PSV Eindhoven 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.81. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.