Excelsior 0-2 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Groningen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Groningen make the trip to Stadion Woudestein to face Excelsior in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Friday 5 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Excelsior have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Woudestein this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Woudestein. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Excelsior are significantly better at Stadion Woudestein than their overall form suggests.
Groningen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Groningen have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Excelsior, 1.40 for Groningen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Groningen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 54% versus Groningen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 58% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.14 xG and Groningen 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.644 / defence 0.874 | Groningen attack 0.836 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.410. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Excelsior games / 48 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 38% | Draw 29% | Groningen 33%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Groningen 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 30% | Groningen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Friday 5 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 38% | Draw 29% | Groningen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Excelsior 1.14 / Groningen 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.644 / def 0.874 | Groningen attack 0.836 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Groningen xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Groningen kick off?
Excelsior vs Groningen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 5 December 2025 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Excelsior 0 - 2 Groningen.
Where is Excelsior vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Groningen part of?
Excelsior vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 38% chance of winning, Groningen a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Excelsior and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
Record (2 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Groningen 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Groningen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Groningen's attack (0.84x) against Excelsior's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.41
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.17
1.03
Groningen xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.03 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 25W 8D 15L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Groningen's form line: 16W 11D 21L from 48 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 2.00 PPG from 24 outings (15W 3D 6L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 5W 3D 16L from 24 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.23 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Groningen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 25W 8D 15L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while Groningen have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Groningen away?
Excelsior's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 2.00 PPG; Groningen away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Groningen in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Groningen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Groningen?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Groningen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Groningen 2-3 Excelsior.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 38%, Groningen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Excelsior) and 58% (Groningen).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Groningen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Groningen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Excelsior's recent matches and 58% of Groningen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Excelsior's recent games and 58% of Groningen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Groningen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Excelsior 0-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.14 xG and Groningen 1.03 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Groningen outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.64 / defence 0.87 against Groningen attack 0.84 / defence 1.02, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 38% | Draw 29% | Groningen 33%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Groningen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 58%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.23. Form was overturned, with Groningen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.