Excelsior 2-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022, 11:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AZ Alkmaar's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Excelsior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 60% and AZ Alkmaar 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 67% | AZ Alkmaar 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.03 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.767 / defence 1.333 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.457 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.311. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — the away xG of 2.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Excelsior games / 44 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 13% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 70%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 7.69 | Draw 5.56 | AZ Alkmaar 1.43. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.03 / 2.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.58 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 80% | AZ Alkmaar 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 13% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 60% | xG Excelsior 1.03 / AZ Alkmaar 2.55 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.767 / def 1.333 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.457 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.55
AZ Alkmaar xG
60%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 13% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 70% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.0%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
13%
7.86
18%
5.64
70%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
1 – 3
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.58
2.55
AZ Alkmaar xG
7.86
13%
Home win
5.64
18%
Draw
1.44
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
8%
12.76
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
1%
100.20
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.55 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 21W 12D 15L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 27W 9D 12L from 48 games, 1.88 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.56 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.70 PPG from 23 outings (11W 6D 6L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 12W 4D 7L from 23 away games — 1.74 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.98 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; AZ Alkmaar in 73%.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 games (1.56 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.70 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Excelsior at 61%, AZ Alkmaar at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Excelsior and 78% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Excelsior's games and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Excelsior's matches and 78% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Excelsior defy the odds to beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat AZ Alkmaar 2-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.03 xG and AZ Alkmaar 2.55 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AZ Alkmaar landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.77 / defence 1.33 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.46 / defence 0.82, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 13% | Draw 18% | AZ Alkmaar 70%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Excelsior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, AZ Alkmaar 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.56 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.