Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 41%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees AZ Alkmaar travel to Stadion Woudestein to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Stadion Woudestein: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Excelsior, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Excelsior trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus AZ Alkmaar 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 57% | AZ Alkmaar 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.33 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.804 / defence 1.080 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.439. Data: 22 Excelsior games / 56 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | AZ Alkmaar 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 50% | AZ Alkmaar 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Excelsior 1.33 / AZ Alkmaar 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.804 / def 1.080 | AZ Alkmaar attack 0.943 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.47
AZ Alkmaar xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Excelsior 1 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 34% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (5 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 2W.
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against AZ Alkmaar's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
34%
2.92
25%
3.96
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.79
1.47
AZ Alkmaar xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.64
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.47 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 28W 13D 17L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 27W 15D 16L from 58 games, 1.66 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.67 PPG, AZ Alkmaar on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.89 PPG from 28 outings (16W 5D 7L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 13W 6D 9L from 28 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.76 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 64%.
Last 58 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 28W 13D 17L in their last 58 games (1.67 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 27W 15D 16L in their last 58 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
Excelsior's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.89 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Excelsior or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2023, when AZ Alkmaar won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
2
Draws
3
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Excelsior 1-2 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 43%, AZ Alkmaar 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Excelsior) and 61% (AZ Alkmaar).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play AZ Alkmaar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Excelsior's recent matches and 54% of AZ Alkmaar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Excelsior's recent games and 61% of AZ Alkmaar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Excelsior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.33 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.47 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 34% | Draw 25% | AZ Alkmaar 41%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 57%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.67 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.