Emmen 0-0 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Emmen and Heerenveen meet at De Oude Meerdijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Heerenveen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Heerenveen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Heerenveen arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 42% versus Heerenveen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 49% | Heerenveen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.37 xG and Heerenveen 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.856 / defence 1.228 | Heerenveen attack 0.952 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.661 / away 1.295. Data: 7 Emmen games / 41 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 41%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Heerenveen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Emmen 50% | Heerenveen 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 34% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.37 / Heerenveen 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.856 / def 1.228 | Heerenveen attack 0.952 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.661 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Heerenveen xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Heerenveen kick off?
Emmen vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Heerenveen?
Emmen 0 - 0 Heerenveen.
Where is Emmen vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Heerenveen part of?
Emmen vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 34% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Heerenveen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Heerenveen in?
Emmen (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Heerenveen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Emmen's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Heerenveen's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.95x) against Emmen's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
34%
2.91
25%
4.04
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.51
Heerenveen xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
8%
13.20
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Emmen and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Emmen and 1.51 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 43 games, going 27W 5D 11L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heerenveen sit at 1.30 PPG from 43 outings (15W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heerenveen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 16W 1D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Heerenveen have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
Heerenveen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 27W 5D 11L in their last 43 games (2.00 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Heerenveen away?
Emmen's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.33 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Emmen or Heerenveen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Heerenveen in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Emmen
1
Draws
0
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Heerenveen?
From 2 meetings on record, Emmen have won 1, Heerenveen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Heerenveen 2-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Heerenveen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 43%, Heerenveen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Emmen) and 43% (Heerenveen).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Heerenveen in 33%; Heerenveen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Heerenveen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Emmen's recent matches and 43% of Heerenveen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Emmen's recent games and 43% of Heerenveen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Heerenveen tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 8, as Emmen and Heerenveen drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.37 xG and Heerenveen 1.51 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Heerenveen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Heerenveen attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 34% | Draw 25% | Heerenveen 41%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 49%, Heerenveen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Heerenveen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Heerenveen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.