Emmen 0-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Emmen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Oude Meerdijk plays host to Emmen versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 15 January 2023 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Emmen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at De Oude Meerdijk this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Oude Meerdijk. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Emmen are significantly better at De Oude Meerdijk than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Emmen half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 43% versus Cambuur 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 47% | Cambuur 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Cambuur 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.820 / defence 1.126 | Cambuur attack 0.863 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.265. Data: 15 Emmen games / 49 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 36% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 32%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Cambuur 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 40% | Cambuur 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 36% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Emmen 1.31 / Cambuur 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.820 / def 1.126 | Cambuur attack 0.863 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Emmen (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cambuur xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Cambuur kick off?
Emmen vs Cambuur kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Emmen 0 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is Emmen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Cambuur part of?
Emmen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 36% chance of winning, Cambuur a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Emmen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Cambuur (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Emmen's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.86x) against Emmen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
36%
2.77
31%
3.18
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.54
1.23
Cambuur xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.23 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen's recent record stands at 27W 9D 13L from 49 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambuur, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 28L across 49 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambuur heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Emmen have managed 16W 5D 3L from 24 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambuur's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.27 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Defensively: Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Cambuur
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 27W 9D 13L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 28L in their last 49 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Cambuur away?
Emmen's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 2.21 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Emmen or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cambuur in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 4 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Emmen
2
Draws
2
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 4, Cambuur have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Emmen 2-4 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Cambuur?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 46%, Cambuur 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Emmen) and 62% (Cambuur). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Cambuur in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Emmen's recent matches and 50% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Emmen's matches and 62% of Cambuur's.
Do Emmen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Emmen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen and Cambuur finished level at 0-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Cambuur 1.23 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Cambuur attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 36% | Draw 31% | Cambuur 32%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 47%, Cambuur 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambuur's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.