Dordrecht 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dordrecht at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dordrecht face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eredivisie (Relegation Round). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dordrecht at home: 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Dordrecht are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
De Graafschap's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Dordrecht, 2 for De Graafschap and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2025, ended Dordrecht 0–0 De Graafschap — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 63% and De Graafschap 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 56% | De Graafschap 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dordrecht surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while De Graafschap have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Data: built from Dordrecht's last 0 games and De Graafschap's last 0.
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 2.37 | Draw 3.64 | De Graafschap 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dordrecht are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dordrecht 40% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Dordrecht 1.56 / De Graafschap 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | De Graafschap attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.30
De Graafschap xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 17 May 2025 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Eredivisie fixture (Relegation Round) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 42% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.85x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Dordrecht's last 0 games and De Graafschap's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.64
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
De Graafschap xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.30 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 18W 17D 6L from 41 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 14L across 41 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.59 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 11W 7D 2L from their last 20 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 8W 3D 9L across their last 20 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.59 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
Dordrecht (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dordrecht
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 18W 17D 6L in their last 41 games (1.73 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
Dordrecht's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 2.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap, the earliest from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won Dordrecht 0-4 De Graafschap on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, De Graafschap 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Dordrecht and 70% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dordrecht vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Dordrecht's games and 65% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Dordrecht's matches and 70% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 80% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat De Graafschap 2-0 at M-Scores Stadion, Relegation Round, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.56 xG and De Graafschap 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against De Graafschap attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 42% | Draw 28% | De Graafschap 30%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 56%, De Graafschap 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.73 PPG, De Graafschap 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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