Cambuur 4-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Waalwijk at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cambuur vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Waalwijk travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Cambuur have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 1W 0D 9L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Waalwijk's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Waalwijk are 0.60 PPG ahead (0.90 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cambuur, 1 for Waalwijk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–5 with Waalwijk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Waalwijk trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 54% versus Waalwijk 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 66% | Waalwijk 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.34 xG and Waalwijk 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.631 / defence 1.416 | Waalwijk attack 0.882 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.290. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.631 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Cambuur's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 67 Cambuur games / 67 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 42%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Waalwijk 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Waalwijk at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waalwijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 40% | Waalwijk 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Cambuur 1.34 / Waalwijk 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.631 / def 1.416 | Waalwijk attack 0.882 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Waalwijk xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Waalwijk kick off?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Cambuur 4 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Cambuur vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Waalwijk part of?
Cambuur vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 30% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cambuur and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
Record (3 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in?
Cambuur (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cambuur's attack rating (0.63) and Waalwijk's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
30%
3.31
28%
3.59
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.96
1.61
Waalwijk xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
6%
16.60
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.61 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Cambuur have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 15W 10D 42L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 20W 19D 28L from 67 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 0.82 PPG, Waalwijk on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 0.73 PPG from 33 outings (7W 3D 23L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 5W 13D 15L from 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.34 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 63%.
Last 67 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 15W 10D 42L in their last 67 games (0.82 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 20W 19D 28L in their last 67 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Waalwijk away?
Waalwijk's away record (0.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.73 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Waalwijk runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2022, when Waalwijk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cambuur
2
Draws
2
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Waalwijk?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 2, Waalwijk have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Cambuur 1-1 Waalwijk.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 61%, Waalwijk 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Cambuur and 58% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur have failed to score in 33% of games; Waalwijk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Cambuur's games and 67% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Cambuur's matches and 58% of Waalwijk's.
Do Cambuur and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cambuur run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Waalwijk 4-0 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.34 xG and Waalwijk 1.61 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cambuur beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Waalwijk landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.63 / defence 1.42 against Waalwijk attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 30% | Draw 28% | Waalwijk 42%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 66%, Waalwijk 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Waalwijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 0.82 PPG, Waalwijk 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.