Cambuur 1-6 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Vitesse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cambuurstadion plays host to Cambuur versus Vitesse in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Cambuurstadion: 4W 0D 3L from 7 Eredivisie appearances (1.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's away record: 5W 0D 2L from 7 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 64% versus Vitesse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 79% | Vitesse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.54 xG and Vitesse 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 1.188 / defence 1.376 | Vitesse attack 0.753 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.299. Data: 14 Cambuur games / 14 Vitesse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 33%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Vitesse 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 86% | Vitesse 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cambuurstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Cambuur 1.54 / Vitesse 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 1.188 / def 1.376 | Vitesse attack 0.753 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Vitesse xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Vitesse kick off?
Cambuur vs Vitesse kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Cambuurstadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Cambuur 1 - 6 Vitesse.
Where is Cambuur vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Cambuurstadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Vitesse part of?
Cambuur vs Vitesse is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 42% chance of winning, Vitesse a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cambuur and Vitesse will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in?
Cambuur (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Vitesse (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cambuur's attack at 1.19x the league average against Vitesse's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.75x) against Cambuur's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
42%
2.38
25%
4.05
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.89
1.35
Vitesse xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
11%
9.14
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.35 for Vitesse, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cambuur's recent record stands at 8W 0D 6L from 14 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitesse, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 5L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Cambuur against 1.64 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 4W 0D 3L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitesse's away record stands at 5W 0D 2L across 7 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.64 PPG overall record — Vitesse travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cambuur are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 8W 0D 6L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 7W 2D 5L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Vitesse away?
Vitesse's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.71 PPG; Vitesse away: 2.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 0-6 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cambuur have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Cambuur
0
Draws
4
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Vitesse?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 4, Vitesse have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Vitesse last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Cambuur 2-1 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 86%, Vitesse 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Cambuur and 43% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 43%; Vitesse in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Vitesse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Cambuur's games and 29% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Vitesse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Cambuur's matches and 43% of Vitesse's.
Do Cambuur and Vitesse tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Vitesse in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 1-6 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Cambuur 1-6 at Cambuurstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.54 xG and Vitesse 1.35 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. Vitesse outscored their 1.35 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 1.19 / defence 1.38 against Vitesse attack 0.75 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 42% | Draw 25% | Vitesse 33%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 79%, Vitesse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.71 PPG, Vitesse 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.