Cambuur 0-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NEC Nijmegen at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees NEC Nijmegen travel to Cambuur Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 November 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cambuur have posted 1W 2D 7L at Cambuur Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, NEC Nijmegen have recorded 0W 8D 2L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NEC Nijmegen away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cambuur 0.80 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cambuur, 1 for NEC Nijmegen and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cambuur trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
NEC Nijmegen trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambuur 60% versus NEC Nijmegen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 64% | NEC Nijmegen 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 0.91 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.629 / defence 1.050 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.761 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.300. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.629 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Cambuur games / 46 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 37%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | NEC Nijmegen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates NEC Nijmegen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NEC Nijmegen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 40% | NEC Nijmegen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cambuur Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 30% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Cambuur 0.91 / NEC Nijmegen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.629 / def 1.050 | NEC Nijmegen attack 0.761 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: NEC Nijmegen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.04
NEC Nijmegen xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 November 2022 at Cambuur Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Cambuur 0 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Cambuur Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 30% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making NEC Nijmegen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 1W | Draws 0 | NEC Nijmegen 1W.
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 0W-8D-2L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against NEC Nijmegen's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. The same calculation in reverse, NEC Nijmegen's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NEC Nijmegen Win
30%
3.32
33%
3.02
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Cambuur xG
Total xG
1.95
1.04
NEC Nijmegen xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.8 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.04 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur's recent record stands at 13W 8D 24L from 45 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 18L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.04 PPG, NEC Nijmegen on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cambuur have managed 6W 3D 13L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 8W 6D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NEC Nijmegen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.11 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
NEC Nijmegen's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 0.95 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting NEC Nijmegen specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cambuur
1
Draws
2
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
From 4 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 1, NEC Nijmegen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2023, when NEC Nijmegen 0-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 68%, NEC Nijmegen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Cambuur) and 46% (NEC Nijmegen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play NEC Nijmegen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cambuur's games and 59% of NEC Nijmegen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Cambuur's recent games and 46% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cambuur and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as NEC Nijmegen edge out Cambuur 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NEC Nijmegen beat Cambuur 0-1 at Cambuur Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 0.91 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.04 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.63 / defence 1.05 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.76 / defence 0.85, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 30% | Draw 33% | NEC Nijmegen 37%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 64%, NEC Nijmegen 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.04 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NEC Nijmegen win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.