AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Sparta Rotterdam travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sparta Rotterdam stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Rotterdam's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sparta Rotterdam are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AZ Alkmaar have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Sparta Rotterdam have managed just 2 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The historical record gives AZ Alkmaar a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 67% versus Sparta Rotterdam 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Sparta Rotterdam 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.44 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.949 / defence 1.109 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.088 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.387. Data: 57 AZ Alkmaar games / 57 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 43%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
AZ Alkmaar dominate the H2H record, yet Sparta Rotterdam are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 90% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.44 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.949 / def 1.109 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.088 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Sparta Rotterdam xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 33% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (9 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 5W | Draws 2 | Sparta Rotterdam 2W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Rotterdam's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
33%
3.04
24%
4.14
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.11
1.67
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.7 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.67 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 26W 15D 16L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 20W 16D 21L from 57 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.63 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (12W 9D 7L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 11W 7D 10L from 28 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 26W 15D 16L in their last 57 games (1.63 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.61 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Sparta Rotterdam specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
2
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 75%, Sparta Rotterdam 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (AZ Alkmaar) and 46% (Sparta Rotterdam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Sparta Rotterdam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 50% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 46% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sparta Rotterdam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Sparta Rotterdam 3-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.44 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.67 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 24% | Sparta Rotterdam 43%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Sparta Rotterdam 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.63 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.