AZ Alkmaar 1-5 PSV Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AFAS Stadion, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
PSV Eindhoven (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PSV Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PSV Eindhoven's away record: 10W 0D 0L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 2.50 for PSV Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, PSV Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to PSV Eindhoven, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Jan 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PSV Eindhoven have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
AZ Alkmaar half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
PSV Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 64% and PSV Eindhoven 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 67% | PSV Eindhoven 84%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 2.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.326 / defence 1.001 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.645 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.458. AZ Alkmaar carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PSV Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.645 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 AZ Alkmaar games / 45 PSV Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 47%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.94 | Draw 5.26 | PSV Eindhoven 2.13. PSV Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (19%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 79% | Total xG 4.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 79% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 2.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PSV Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 82% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 79% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 90% | PSV Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 82% | BTTS 79% | xG AZ Alkmaar 2.03 / PSV Eindhoven 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.326 / def 1.001 | PSV Eindhoven attack 1.645 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.458 • Poisson stance: PSV Eindhoven (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
2.40
PSV Eindhoven xG
79%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
65%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
AZ Alkmaar 1 - 5 PSV Eindhoven.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 34% chance of winning, PSV Eindhoven a 47% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making PSV Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 79% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 82%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
Record (8 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 2W | Draws 1 | PSV Eindhoven 5W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. PSV Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (1.33) and PSV Eindhoven's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PSV Eindhoven's attack (1.65x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.0%), 1-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PSV Eindhoven Win
34%
2.99
19%
5.18
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
2 – 1
5.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
4.43
2.40
PSV Eindhoven xG
2.99
34%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
82%
Over 2.5
1.22
18%
Under 2.5
5.56
65%
Over 3.5
1.54
35%
Under 3.5
2.86
45%
Over 4.5
2.22
55%
Under 4.5
1.82
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
79%
BTTS Yes
1.27
21%
BTTS No
4.76
Clean Sheet
9%
11.05
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
3%
32.97
6%
16.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 2.40 for PSV Eindhoven, a combined total of 4.43.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AZ Alkmaar's recent record stands at 23W 12D 10L from 45 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PSV Eindhoven, meanwhile, have gone 34W 5D 6L across 45 games — 2.38 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for PSV Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours PSV Eindhoven by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AZ Alkmaar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AZ Alkmaar have managed 11W 6D 5L from 22 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PSV Eindhoven's away record stands at 17W 1D 4L across 22 trips, a 2.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PSV Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; PSV Eindhoven are on 3.07 scored and 1.22 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; PSV Eindhoven in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
PSV Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 23W 12D 10L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while PSV Eindhoven have gone 34W 5D 6L in their last 45 (2.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or PSV Eindhoven away?
PSV Eindhoven's away record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.77 PPG; PSV Eindhoven away: 2.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PSV Eindhoven have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PSV Eindhoven won 0-4 on 17 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PSV Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
7
PSV Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 2, PSV Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when PSV Eindhoven 2-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
PSV Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
PSV Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for AZ Alkmaar, 73% for PSV Eindhoven — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for AZ Alkmaar and 86% for PSV Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / PSV Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play PSV Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 73% of PSV Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 86% of PSV Eindhoven's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, PSV Eindhoven in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PSV Eindhoven run riot with a 1-5 hammering of AZ Alkmaar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PSV Eindhoven beat AZ Alkmaar 1-5 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 2.03 xG and PSV Eindhoven 2.40 xG, a combined 4.43. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar fell 1.0 short of their projected output. PSV Eindhoven outscored their 2.40 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 1.33 / defence 1.00 against PSV Eindhoven attack 1.65 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 34% | Draw 19% | PSV Eindhoven 47%, with PSV Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 82%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 65% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 79% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 67%, PSV Eindhoven 84%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
PSV Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PSV Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.80. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PSV Eindhoven (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.