AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AZ Alkmaar (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AZ Alkmaar face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AZ Alkmaar haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 3D 2L at AFAS Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Groningen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Groningen haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Groningen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, AZ Alkmaar have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Groningen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
AZ Alkmaar hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Groningen, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 3–0 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The historical record gives AZ Alkmaar a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 62% versus Groningen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.88 xG and Groningen 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.946 / defence 0.936 | Groningen attack 0.889 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.774 / away 1.211. Data: 34 AZ Alkmaar games / 34 Groningen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 56% | Draw 25% | Groningen 18%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 5.56. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 56% | Draw 25% | Groningen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 55% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.88 / Groningen 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.946 / def 0.936 | Groningen attack 0.889 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.774 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Groningen xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar 4 - 1 Groningen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 56% chance of winning, Groningen a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
Record (6 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 4W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.95) and Groningen's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.94
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.89
1.01
Groningen xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
35.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.01 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 16W 9D 9L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. AZ Alkmaar haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Groningen's form line: 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. Groningen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (8W 4D 5L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 2W 3D 12L from 17 away games — 0.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Groningen's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.18 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Pre-Season
Groningen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 16W 9D 9L in their last 34 games (1.68 PPG), while Groningen have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Groningen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.65 PPG; Groningen away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 65%, Groningen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (AZ Alkmaar) and 59% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 59% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 59% of Groningen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Groningen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Groningen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 4-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.88 xG and Groningen 1.01 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.95 / defence 0.94 against Groningen attack 0.89 / defence 1.12, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 56% | Draw 25% | Groningen 18%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 65%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Groningen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.