AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AZ Alkmaar at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord meet at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AZ Alkmaar's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. AZ Alkmaar haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 4D 1L at AFAS Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AZ Alkmaar are significantly better at AFAS Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Feyenoord haven't played a Eredivisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Feyenoord's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Feyenoord, who have claimed 7 wins from 10 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
AZ Alkmaar — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Feyenoord — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AZ Alkmaar 65% and Feyenoord 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 65% | Feyenoord 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.72 xG and Feyenoord 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.104 / defence 1.022 | Feyenoord attack 1.035 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.810 / away 1.308. Data: 34 AZ Alkmaar games / 34 Feyenoord games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 28%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Feyenoord 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AZ Alkmaar at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AZ Alkmaar 60% | Feyenoord 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 42% | Draw 30% | Feyenoord 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.72 / Feyenoord 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 1.104 / def 1.022 | Feyenoord attack 1.035 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.810 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Feyenoord xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at AFAS Stadion.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Record (10 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 2 | Feyenoord 7W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.03x) against AZ Alkmaar's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
42%
2.36
30%
3.36
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
3.10
1.38
Feyenoord xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
5%
20.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.38 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 14W 10D 10L record — W-D-D-D-D across the most recent five. AZ Alkmaar haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Feyenoord's form line: 19W 8D 7L from 34 games, 1.91 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. Feyenoord haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for AZ Alkmaar against 1.91 for Feyenoord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.82 PPG from 17 outings (8W 7D 2L).
On the road, Feyenoord have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Feyenoord in 62%.
Last 34 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Pre-Season
Feyenoord
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 games (1.53 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 19W 8D 7L in their last 34 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Feyenoord away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.82 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AZ Alkmaar have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AZ Alkmaar
2
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 1, Feyenoord have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Feyenoord 1-1 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 76%, Feyenoord 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for AZ Alkmaar and 59% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 47% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 59% of Feyenoord's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Feyenoord tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.