AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Ajax – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Ajax travel to AFAS Stadion to take on AZ Alkmaar. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar at AFAS Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ajax stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Ajax have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajax away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Ajax's 2.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of AZ Alkmaar's 2.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AZ Alkmaar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Ajax in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AZ Alkmaar, 0 for Ajax and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AZ Alkmaar trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Ajax trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 72% versus Ajax 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (AZ Alkmaar 68% | Ajax 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG and Ajax 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.995 / defence 0.889 | Ajax attack 1.226 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.334. Ajax's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Ajax have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 AZ Alkmaar games / 40 Ajax games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 26% | Ajax 42%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Ajax 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 70% | Ajax 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 26% | Ajax 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.27 / Ajax 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.995 / def 0.889 | Ajax attack 1.226 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Ajax xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
AZ Alkmaar 2 - 1 Ajax.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 33% chance of winning, Ajax a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Ajax will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax?
Record (2 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 1W | Draws 1 | Ajax 0W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Ajax (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AZ Alkmaar's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ajax's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajax's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.91
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.72
1.46
Ajax xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.46 for Ajax, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AZ Alkmaar come into this having played 40 games, going 23W 9D 8L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ajax sit at 2.52 PPG from 40 outings (32W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ajax, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of AZ Alkmaar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AZ Alkmaar's home form reads 13W 5D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajax have taken 2.45 points per game from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L).
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Ajax are on 2.98 scored and 0.55 conceded. AZ Alkmaar's scoring rate against Ajax's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajax in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
Ajax
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Ajax in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 23W 9D 8L in their last 40 games (1.95 PPG), while Ajax have gone 32W 5D 3L in their last 40 (2.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Ajax away?
Ajax's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.20 PPG; Ajax away: 2.45 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Ajax been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Ajax in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Ajax specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AZ Alkmaar
4
Draws
0
Ajax
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax?
From 10 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 6, Ajax have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Ajax last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Ajax?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 75%, Ajax 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (AZ Alkmaar) and 50% (Ajax). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Ajax away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Ajax?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 40% of Ajax's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Ajax usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 50% of Ajax's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Ajax tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ajax in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AZ Alkmaar defy the odds to beat Ajax 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Ajax 2-1 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.27 xG and Ajax 1.46 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Ajax attack 1.23 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 33% | Draw 26% | Ajax 42%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual AZ Alkmaar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 68%, Ajax 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Ajax's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.95. Form was overturned, with AZ Alkmaar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.