Ajax 3-2 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 78% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Waalwijk travel to Johan Cruijff Arena to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajax have posted 7W 1D 2L at Johan Cruijff Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 3.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Johan Cruijff Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ajax have won 1, Waalwijk 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 5–0 with Ajax winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ajax in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 79% of the time.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 17% versus Waalwijk 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 62% | Waalwijk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.71 xG and Waalwijk 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.834 / defence 0.703 | Waalwijk attack 0.812 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.308. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.834 — their λ of 2.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Ajax's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ajax's defence rating of 0.703 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Ajax games / 24 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 78% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 8%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.28 | Draw 7.14 | Waalwijk 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (78%) — a 70pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 78% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Ajax 10% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 78% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 49% | xG Ajax 2.71 / Waalwijk 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.834 / def 0.703 | Waalwijk attack 0.812 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Ajax (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.71
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Waalwijk xG
49%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Waalwijk kick off?
Ajax vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Ajax 3 - 2 Waalwijk.
Where is Ajax vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Waalwijk part of?
Ajax vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 78% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 8% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ajax and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Waalwijk?
Record (1 meetings): Ajax 1W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Ajax and Waalwijk in?
Ajax (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajax's attacking strength (1.83x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.71. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
78%
1.28
14%
7.08
8%
13.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.71
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.46
0.75
Waalwijk xG
1.28
78%
Home win
7.08
14%
Draw
13.28
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
7%
14.98
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
198.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Ajax and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.71 expected goals for Ajax and 0.75 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax come into this having played 24 games, going 18W 3D 3L for 2.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (5W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.42 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ajax's home form reads 9W 1D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.83 points per game from 12 outings (1W 7D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 2.96 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 17% of their recent games; Waalwijk in 67%.
Defensively: Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 79% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 18W 3D 3L in their last 24 games (2.38 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 5W 8D 11L in their last 24 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Waalwijk away?
Ajax's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.33 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Ajax or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajax have kept a clean sheet in 79% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajax have won 8, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Waalwijk?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 8%, Waalwijk 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Ajax and 50% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 83% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 8% of Ajax's recent matches and 75% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Ajax's matches and 50% of Waalwijk's.
Do Ajax and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajax edge out Waalwijk 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 3-2 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.71 xG and Waalwijk 0.75 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.83 / defence 0.70 against Waalwijk attack 0.81 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 78% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 8%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 62%, Waalwijk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 79% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajax (home/away splits) managed 3 against a 3.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.