Ajax 4-1 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ajax (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ajax face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eredivisie encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Waalwijk travel to Johan Cruijff Arena to take on Ajax. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 January 2024, 15:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Ajax have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ajax have posted 6W 2D 2L at Johan Cruijff Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ajax are in the better shape of the two on current Eredivisie data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Ajax hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Waalwijk, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2023, ended 3–2 with Ajax winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ajax and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Ajax in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Waalwijk in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ajax 69% and Waalwijk 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ajax 76% | Waalwijk 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.04 xG and Waalwijk 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.271 / defence 0.912 | Waalwijk attack 0.726 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.496. Ajax carry an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Ajax games / 51 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajax 60% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 16%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Waalwijk 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajax as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Ajax 60% | Waalwijk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Johan Cruijff Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jan 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 60% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Ajax 2.04 / Waalwijk 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.271 / def 0.912 | Waalwijk attack 0.726 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Ajax (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Waalwijk xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajax vs Waalwijk kick off?
Ajax vs Waalwijk kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Ajax 4 - 1 Waalwijk.
Where is Ajax vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff Arena.
What competition is Ajax vs Waalwijk part of?
Ajax vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 60% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ajax and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Ajax vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Waalwijk?
Record (5 meetings): Ajax 5W | Draws 0 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Ajax and Waalwijk in?
Ajax (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ajax's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
60%
1.67
24%
4.14
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Ajax xG
Total xG
3.03
0.99
Waalwijk xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.50
2%
47.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Ajax and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Ajax and 0.99 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ajax come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 13D 10L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Waalwijk sit at 1.08 PPG from 51 outings (15W 10D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajax carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ajax's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Waalwijk have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (4W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ajax are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.29 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajax and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 28W 13D 10L in their last 51 games (1.90 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 15W 10D 26L in their last 51 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Waalwijk away?
Ajax's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.04 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ajax have won the last 8 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Nov 2021, when Ajax won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ajax's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Ajax
0
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Ajax have won 8, Waalwijk have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajax and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2025, when Ajax 2-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Waalwijk?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 60%, Waalwijk 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Ajax and 56% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 64% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Waalwijk in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajax play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Ajax's recent matches and 48% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajax vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Ajax's matches and 56% of Waalwijk's.
Do Ajax and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Waalwijk 4-1 at Johan Cruijff Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.04 xG and Waalwijk 0.99 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ajax beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.27 / defence 0.91 against Waalwijk attack 0.73 / defence 0.99, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 60% | Draw 24% | Waalwijk 16%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 76%, Waalwijk 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Waalwijk's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ajax (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.68 average — above their attacking norm. Waalwijk (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.