Ajax 3-0 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajax at 75% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajax vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Ajax welcome Almere City FC to Johan Cruijff ArenA in Eredivisie (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 15 December 2024 at 15:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Ajax — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ajax at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Almere City FC have recorded 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ajax carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Ajax, 0 for Almere City FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Ajax 3–0 Almere City FC — a Ajax win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ajax in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajax 71% versus Almere City FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajax 76% | Almere City FC 49%). Note also that Almere City FC surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Ajax recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajax 2.23 xG and Almere City FC 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajax attack 1.250 / defence 0.819 | Almere City FC attack 0.566 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.295. Almere City FC's attack rating of 0.566 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Ajax's last 49 games and Almere City FC's last 49.
Result probabilities: Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Almere City FC 8%. Fair-value odds: Ajax 1.34 | Draw 5.94 | Almere City FC 11.83. The model has a clear lean to Ajax (75%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ajax are the pick at 75% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ajax's last 10 home games and Almere City FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ajax 50% (last 10 home games) | Almere City FC 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajax vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 16 | Venue: Johan Cruijff ArenA • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 15:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Almere City FC 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Ajax 2.23 / Almere City FC 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Ajax attack 1.250 / def 0.819 | Almere City FC attack 0.566 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Ajax (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Almere City FC xG
40%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC FAQs
What time does Ajax vs Almere City FC kick off?
Ajax vs Almere City FC kicked off at 15:45 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What was the final score in Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Ajax 3 - 0 Almere City FC.
Where is Ajax vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Johan Cruijff ArenA.
What competition is Ajax vs Almere City FC part of?
Ajax vs Almere City FC is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ajax a 75% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ajax and Almere City FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Ajax vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ajax's attack rating (1.25) and Almere City FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Ajax's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ajax's last 49 games and Almere City FC's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 3-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajax Win
75%
1.34
17%
5.94
8%
11.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Ajax xG
Total xG
2.83
0.60
Almere City FC xG
1.34
75%
Home win
5.94
17%
Draw
11.83
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
55%
1.82
11%
9.33
Win to Nil
41%
2.44
1%
110.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ajax and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Ajax and 0.60 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajax vs Almere City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ajax's recent record stands at 25W 14D 10L from 49 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 25L across 49 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ajax by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almere City FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ajax have managed 15W 7D 2L from their last 24 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 4W 8D 12L across their last 24 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ajax are averaging 2.16 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 0.82 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajax have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajax
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
Ajax (Home) vs Almere City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajax
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Form FAQs
What form are Ajax and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Ajax have gone 25W 14D 10L in their last 49 games (1.82 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 8W 16D 25L in their last 49 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajax at home or Almere City FC away?
Ajax's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajax at home: 2.17 PPG; Almere City FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Ajax have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 May 2024, when Ajax won Ajax 3-0 Almere City FC.
Ajax's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Ajax
1
Draws
0
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajax and Almere City FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajax have won 3, Almere City FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Ajax and Almere City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2025: Almere City FC 0-1 Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Ajax and Almere City FC?
Ajax have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajax 62%, Almere City FC 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Ajax) and 46% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajax keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Almere City FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajax home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajax vs Almere City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajax and Almere City FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ajax's recent matches and 42% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajax and Almere City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Ajax's matches and 46% of Almere City FC's.
Do Ajax and Almere City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of Ajax's recent matches and 75% of Almere City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ajax run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Almere City FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajax beat Almere City FC 3-0 at Johan Cruijff ArenA, Regular Season - 16, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajax 2.23 xG and Almere City FC 0.60 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajax attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Almere City FC attack 0.57 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajax 75% | Draw 17% | Almere City FC 8%, with Ajax to win its most likely call at 75%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajax 76%, Almere City FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajax's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Almere City FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajax arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Ajax (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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