ADO Den Haag 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cambuur at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ADO Den Haag and Cambuur meet at Bingoal Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
ADO Den Haag (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. ADO Den Haag have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
ADO Den Haag's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Bingoal Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Bingoal Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — ADO Den Haag are significantly better at Bingoal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Cambuur have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Cambuur hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cambuur have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
ADO Den Haag goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cambuur goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — ADO Den Haag 54% and Cambuur 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ADO Den Haag 73% | Cambuur 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ADO Den Haag 1.91 xG and Cambuur 2.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ADO Den Haag attack 0.871 / defence 1.388 | Cambuur attack 0.787 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.684 / away 1.893. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing ADO Den Haag's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 ADO Den Haag games / 6 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 42%. Fair-value odds: ADO Den Haag 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Cambuur 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 2.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambuur if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ADO Den Haag 50% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Bingoal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 76% | xG ADO Den Haag 1.91 / Cambuur 2.07 • Poisson strength factors: ADO Den Haag attack 0.871 / def 1.388 | Cambuur attack 0.787 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.684 / away 1.893 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
ADO Den Haag xG
Expected Goals
2.07
Cambuur xG
76%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur kick off?
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Bingoal Stadion.
What was the final score in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
ADO Den Haag 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Bingoal Stadion.
What competition is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur part of?
ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives ADO Den Haag a 35% chance of winning, Cambuur a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both ADO Den Haag and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
Record (6 meetings): ADO Den Haag 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 5W.
What form are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur in?
ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ADO Den Haag's attack at 0.87x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.79x) against ADO Den Haag's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 2.07.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
35%
2.83
23%
4.35
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
ADO Den Haag xG
Total xG
3.97
2.07
Cambuur xG
2.83
35%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.92
15%
6.72
Win to Nil
4%
22.40
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.6 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 2.07 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ADO Den Haag come into this having played 44 games, going 29W 3D 12L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.86 PPG from 44 outings (24W 10D 10L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for ADO Den Haag against 1.86 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
ADO Den Haag's home form reads 15W 1D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ADO Den Haag are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.91 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ADO Den Haag
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ADO Den Haag and Cambuur in coming into this match?
ADO Den Haag have gone 29W 3D 12L in their last 44 games (2.05 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ADO Den Haag at home or Cambuur away?
ADO Den Haag's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ADO Den Haag at home: 2.19 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.67 PPG.
Have ADO Den Haag or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
ADO Den Haag have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cambuur in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ADO Den Haag have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
ADO Den Haag
1
Draws
5
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
From 7 meetings on record, ADO Den Haag have won 1, Cambuur have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ADO Den Haag and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when ADO Den Haag 1-1 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between ADO Den Haag and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ADO Den Haag 62%, Cambuur 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for ADO Den Haag and 62% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ADO Den Haag keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ADO Den Haag home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ADO Den Haag play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ADO Den Haag's games and 67% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ADO Den Haag vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of ADO Den Haag's matches and 62% of Cambuur's.
Do ADO Den Haag and Cambuur tend to score early?
ADO Den Haag have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ADO Den Haag and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bingoal Stadion, Regular Season - 7, as ADO Den Haag and Cambuur drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ADO Den Haag 1.91 xG and Cambuur 2.07 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. ADO Den Haag fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cambuur landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ADO Den Haag attack 0.87 / defence 1.39 against Cambuur attack 0.79 / defence 1.30, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ADO Den Haag 35% | Draw 23% | Cambuur 42%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ADO Den Haag 73%, Cambuur 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambuur's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — ADO Den Haag 2.05 PPG, Cambuur 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.