Willem II 3-2 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Willem II face Telstar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus Telstar in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Koning Willem II Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Telstar (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Willem II's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Telstar's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Willem II 2W, Telstar 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 5–1 with Willem II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Willem II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 63% versus Telstar 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 57% | Telstar 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.50 xG and Telstar 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.264 / defence 0.834 | Telstar attack 0.740 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Willem II carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 2.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Willem II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 75 Willem II games / 75 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.37 | Draw 5.56 | Telstar 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 70% | Telstar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Willem II 2.50 / Telstar 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.264 / def 0.834 | Telstar attack 0.740 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Willem II (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Telstar xG
53%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Telstar kick off?
Willem II vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Willem II 3 - 2 Telstar.
Where is Willem II vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Telstar part of?
Willem II vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 73% chance of winning, Telstar a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Willem II and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are Willem II and Telstar in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Telstar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.26) and Telstar's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.74x) against Willem II's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
73%
1.38
18%
5.54
9%
10.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.35
0.84
Telstar xG
1.38
73%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
10.60
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
8%
12.24
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
1%
129.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Willem II and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Willem II and 0.84 for Telstar, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Willem II's recent record stands at 41W 21D 13L from 75 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 33L across 75 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Willem II by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Telstar heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Willem II have managed 26W 5D 6L from 37 games — 2.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 8W 9D 20L across 37 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Willem II are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.12 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Telstar in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 41W 21D 13L in their last 75 games (1.92 PPG), while Telstar have gone 23W 19D 33L in their last 75 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Telstar away?
Willem II's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.24 PPG; Telstar away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Willem II or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Telstar in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 June 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-5 on 24 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Telstar?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 1 June 2025, when Willem II 1-3 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Telstar?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 65%, Telstar 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Willem II) and 43% (Telstar). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Telstar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Willem II's games and 46% of Telstar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Willem II's matches and 43% of Telstar's.
Do Willem II and Telstar tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Telstar in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Telstar 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Telstar 3-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.50 xG and Telstar 0.84 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Telstar outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.26 / defence 0.83 against Telstar attack 0.74 / defence 1.20, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 73% | Draw 18% | Telstar 9%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 73%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 57%, Telstar 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Telstar's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.