Willem II 2-3 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Willem II vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Koning Willem II Stadion plays host to Willem II versus PEC Zwolle in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 10 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Willem II's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PEC Zwolle have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: D W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Willem II, 2.20 for PEC Zwolle — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Willem II 1W, PEC Zwolle 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Willem II — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 52% versus PEC Zwolle 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 56% | PEC Zwolle 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.51 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.994 / defence 0.878 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.187 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.258. Data: 27 Willem II games / 27 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 42% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 33%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | PEC Zwolle 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Willem II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 60% | PEC Zwolle 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 42% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Willem II 1.51 / PEC Zwolle 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.994 / def 0.878 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.187 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Willem II (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 March 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Willem II 2 - 3 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Willem II vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 42% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Willem II and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | PEC Zwolle 1W.
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 3.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Willem II's attack rating (0.99) and PEC Zwolle's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.19x) against Willem II's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
42%
2.38
25%
4.00
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.82
1.31
PEC Zwolle xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
7%
13.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Willem II and 1.31 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Willem II come into this having played 61 games, going 21W 14D 26L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PEC Zwolle sit at 1.43 PPG from 61 outings (26W 9D 26L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Willem II against 1.43 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Willem II's home form reads 15W 5D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Willem II are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, PEC Zwolle have taken 1.37 points per game from 30 outings (13W 2D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 21W 14D 26L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 26W 9D 26L in their last 61 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Willem II's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.67 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PEC Zwolle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Willem II
1
Draws
3
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 2, PEC Zwolle have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Willem II 1-2 PEC Zwolle.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and PEC Zwolle?
PEC Zwolle have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 47%, PEC Zwolle 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Willem II) and 53% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PEC Zwolle in 33%; PEC Zwolle in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Willem II's recent matches and 33% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Willem II's recent games and 53% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PEC Zwolle defy the odds to beat Willem II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Willem II 2-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.51 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.31 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PEC Zwolle outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.99 / defence 0.88 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.19 / defence 0.86, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 42% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 33%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 56%, PEC Zwolle 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.26 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.