Willem II 2-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees MVV travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Willem II — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Koning Willem II Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, MVV have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Willem II are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Willem II, 1 for MVV and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
MVV in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 60% versus MVV 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 52% | MVV 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.25 xG and MVV 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.676 / defence 0.963 | MVV attack 0.734 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.769 / away 1.368. Willem II's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Willem II games / 50 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 29% | MVV 29%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | MVV 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | MVV 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 29% | MVV 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Willem II 1.25 / MVV 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.676 / def 0.963 | MVV attack 0.734 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.769 / away 1.368 • Poisson stance: Willem II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.97
MVV xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs MVV kick off?
Willem II vs MVV kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs MVV?
Willem II 2 - 2 MVV.
Where is Willem II vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs MVV part of?
Willem II vs MVV is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 43% chance of winning, MVV a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Willem II and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and MVV?
Record (4 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | MVV 1W.
What form are Willem II and MVV in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Willem II's attack at 0.68x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
43%
2.33
29%
3.50
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.22
0.97
MVV xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Willem II and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Willem II and 0.97 for MVV, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 11D 26L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV's form line: 14W 12D 24L from 50 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.00 PPG, MVV on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (7W 3D 14L).
On the road, MVV have gone 2W 7D 15L from 24 away games — 0.54 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Willem II are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.30 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and MVV in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 13W 11D 26L in their last 50 games (1.00 PPG), while MVV have gone 14W 12D 24L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or MVV away?
Willem II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.00 PPG; MVV away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Willem II and MVV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Willem II won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
2
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and MVV?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, MVV have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when MVV 0-5 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and MVV?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 58%, MVV 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Willem II) and 46% (MVV).
On the defensive side: MVV in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Willem II's recent matches and 42% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Willem II's recent games and 46% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Willem II and MVV tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, MVV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II and MVV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 13, as Willem II and MVV drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.25 xG and MVV 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. MVV outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.68 / defence 0.96 against MVV attack 0.73 / defence 1.05, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 43% | Draw 29% | MVV 29%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 52%, MVV 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.00 PPG, MVV 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.