Willem II 3-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 29 as Willem II welcome FC Eindhoven to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Willem II's home record at Koning Willem II Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Eindhoven — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Willem II carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Willem II, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Willem II in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 63% and FC Eindhoven 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | FC Eindhoven 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.98 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.169 / defence 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.123 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.366. Data: 66 Willem II games / 66 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 47% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 28%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | FC Eindhoven 3.57. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | FC Eindhoven 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 47% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Willem II 1.98 / FC Eindhoven 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.169 / def 0.985 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.123 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Willem II (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Eindhoven xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Willem II 3 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 47% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Willem II and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.17) and FC Eindhoven's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
47%
2.12
25%
4.07
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.49
1.51
FC Eindhoven xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.61
4%
25.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Willem II and 1.51 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Willem II come into this having played 68 games, going 36W 18D 14L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.40 PPG from 68 outings (24W 23D 21L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-D across their last five.
Willem II carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Willem II's home form reads 23W 5D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.32 points per game from 34 outings (11W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.40 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 36W 18D 14L in their last 68 games (1.85 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 24W 23D 21L in their last 68 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Willem II's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.18 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Willem II or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when FC Eindhoven 0-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and FC Eindhoven?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 68%, FC Eindhoven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Willem II and 53% for FC Eindhoven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Willem II's games and 62% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 53% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Willem II and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Willem II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.98 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.51 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 1.04, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 47% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 28%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, FC Eindhoven 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.40. That form edge translated into the three points. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.