Willem II 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Willem II at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Den Bosch make the trip to Koning Willem II Stadion to face Willem II in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Willem II (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Willem II have posted 8W 1D 1L at Koning Willem II Stadion — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Willem II are significantly better at Koning Willem II Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Willem II. A 0.90 PPG lead over Den Bosch (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Willem II lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with Willem II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Willem II half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 62% versus Den Bosch 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 62% | Den Bosch 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 2.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.213 / defence 1.043 | Den Bosch attack 0.953 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.359. Data: 47 Willem II games / 47 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 59% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 21%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Willem II (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.31 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Willem II are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: Willem II 70% | Den Bosch 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 59% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Willem II 2.31 / Den Bosch 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.213 / def 1.043 | Den Bosch attack 0.953 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Willem II (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Den Bosch xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs Den Bosch kick off?
Willem II vs Den Bosch kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 15 October 2023 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Willem II 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Willem II vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Den Bosch part of?
Willem II vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 59% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Willem II and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Den Bosch?
Record (2 meetings): Willem II 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Willem II and Den Bosch in?
Willem II (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Willem II's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.95x) against Willem II's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
59%
1.70
20%
5.04
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Willem II xG
Total xG
3.66
1.35
Den Bosch xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
2%
46.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Willem II and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Willem II and 1.35 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 24W 13D 10L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 13W 5D 29L from 47 games, 0.94 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Willem II are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.17 PPG from 23 outings (16W 2D 5L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 4W 2D 17L from 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Willem II are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.21 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 24W 13D 10L in their last 47 games (1.81 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 13W 5D 29L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Den Bosch away?
Willem II's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.17 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Willem II or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Willem II won 1-4 on 15 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Willem II have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Den Bosch?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Willem II 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Den Bosch?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 61%, Den Bosch 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Willem II and 65% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Den Bosch in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Willem II's recent matches and 44% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Willem II vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Willem II's matches and 65% of Den Bosch's.
Do Willem II and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Den Bosch 3-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 2.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.35 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against Den Bosch attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 59% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 21%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 62%, Den Bosch 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Den Bosch's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.