Waalwijk 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waalwijk at 78%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waalwijk host FC Volendam at Mandemakers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 October 2026 at 10:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's home record at Mandemakers Stadion: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waalwijk at 1.40 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Volendam in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Waalwijk, 2 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Waalwijk trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
FC Volendam trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 78% and FC Volendam 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 67% | FC Volendam 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 3.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.257 / defence 1.030 | FC Volendam attack 0.867 / defence 1.438. League average goals — home 1.884 / away 1.433. Waalwijk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — their λ of 3.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.438 — this is suppressing Waalwijk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Waalwijk games / 10 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 78% | Draw 12% | FC Volendam 10%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 1.28 | Draw 8.33 | FC Volendam 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Waalwijk (78%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 85% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 85% — a total xG of 4.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (3.41 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waalwijk are the pick at 78% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 85% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 10:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 78% | Draw 12% | FC Volendam 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 85% | BTTS 70% | xG Waalwijk 3.41 / FC Volendam 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.257 / def 1.030 | FC Volendam attack 0.867 / def 1.438 | league avg home 1.884 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Waalwijk (78%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.41
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.28
FC Volendam xG
70%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
69%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kick off?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam kicked off at 10:15 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Waalwijk 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam part of?
Waalwijk vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 78% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 10% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Waalwijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Waalwijk and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 85%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 2W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Waalwijk's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.41. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Waalwijk's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (6.8%), 4-1 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 21% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Waalwijk Win
78%
1.29
12%
8.23
10%
9.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
4 – 1
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.41
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
4.69
1.28
FC Volendam xG
1.29
78%
Home win
8.23
12%
Draw
9.69
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
85%
Over 2.5
1.18
15%
Under 2.5
6.67
69%
Over 3.5
1.45
31%
Under 3.5
3.23
50%
Over 4.5
2.00
50%
Under 4.5
2.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
3%
30.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 3.41 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.28 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 4.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 78%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Waalwijk come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 16D 13L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.09 PPG from 46 outings (14W 8D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Waalwijk on 1.46 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Waalwijk's home form reads 10W 6D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.52 points per game from 23 outings (3W 3D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waalwijk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Waalwijk are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.30 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 16D 13L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 14W 8D 24L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or FC Volendam away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.57 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2023, when Waalwijk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waalwijk's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Waalwijk
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and FC Volendam?
From 5 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 2, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 FC Volendam.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Waalwijk at 83%, FC Volendam at 48%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Waalwijk and 56% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Waalwijk's games and 48% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of FC Volendam's.
Do Waalwijk and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk and FC Volendam finished level at 1-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 3.41 xG and FC Volendam 1.28 xG, a combined 4.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 1.26 / defence 1.03 against FC Volendam attack 0.87 / defence 1.44, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 78% | Draw 12% | FC Volendam 10%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 78%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 85%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 69% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 67%, FC Volendam 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waalwijk 1.46 PPG, FC Volendam 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.