Waalwijk vs Almere City FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almere City FC at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waalwijk vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Almere City FC in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 30 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 7D 1L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waalwijk have posted 5W 3D 2L at Mandemakers Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Almere City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Almere City FC have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Almere City FC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Waalwijk, 1.70 for Almere City FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waalwijk register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Almere City FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Waalwijk 3W, Almere City FC 1W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Waalwijk 79% and Almere City FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Waalwijk 64% | Almere City FC 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.62 xG and Almere City FC 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 1.125 / defence 1.065 | Almere City FC attack 1.175 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.702. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Waalwijk games / 43 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 3.45 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 2.00. Almere City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almere City FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 80% | Almere City FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 30 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 29% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Waalwijk 1.62 / Almere City FC 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 1.125 / def 1.065 | Almere City FC attack 1.175 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.702 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Almere City FC xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Almere City FC kick off?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Mandemakers Stadion.
Where is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC part of?
Waalwijk vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 29% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 50% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Waalwijk and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Record (6 meetings): Waalwijk 3W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. Almere City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 1.12x the league average against Almere City FC's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.18x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.13.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
29%
3.40
21%
4.80
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.75
2.13
Almere City FC xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
3%
28.57
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.13 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 17W 17D 13L record — D-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almere City FC's form line: 23W 6D 18L from 47 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Almere City FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Waalwijk against 1.60 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.54 PPG from 24 outings (10W 7D 7L).
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 10W 3D 11L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 2.04 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk have seen both teams score in 79% of their recent games; Almere City FC in 66%.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Early Season
Almere City FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 17D 13L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 23W 6D 18L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Almere City FC away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.54 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waalwijk won 1-4 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Waalwijk
2
Draws
1
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 3, Almere City FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Almere City FC 2-2 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Almere City FC?
Waalwijk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Waalwijk, 75% for Almere City FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Waalwijk and 71% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Almere City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Waalwijk's games and 75% of Almere City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Waalwijk's matches and 71% of Almere City FC's.
Do Waalwijk and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.