VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cambuur (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VVV Venlo face Cambuur.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
VVV Venlo and Cambuur meet at Seacon - De Koel in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
VVV Venlo's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Seacon - De Koel, VVV Venlo have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Cambuur have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cambuur are 1.50 PPG clear of VVV Venlo in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.30 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Cambuur have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to VVV Venlo's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Cambuur winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Cambuur have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
VVV Venlo half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VVV Venlo 51% versus Cambuur 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VVV Venlo 59% | Cambuur 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VVV Venlo 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VVV Venlo attack 0.708 / defence 1.042 | Cambuur attack 1.254 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.508. VVV Venlo's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — the away xG of 1.97 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 VVV Venlo games / 71 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VVV Venlo 18% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 61%. Fair-value odds: VVV Venlo 5.56 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Cambuur (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambuur at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: VVV Venlo 40% | Cambuur 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VVV Venlo vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Seacon - De Koel • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VVV Venlo 18% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG VVV Venlo 0.97 / Cambuur 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: VVV Venlo attack 0.708 / def 1.042 | Cambuur attack 1.254 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
VVV Venlo xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Cambuur xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VVV Venlo vs Cambuur kick off?
VVV Venlo vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Seacon - De Koel.
What was the final score in VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
VVV Venlo 3 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Seacon - De Koel.
What competition is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur part of?
VVV Venlo vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives VVV Venlo a 18% chance of winning, Cambuur a 61% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both VVV Venlo and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will VVV Venlo vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
Record (5 meetings): VVV Venlo 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 4W.
What form are VVV Venlo and Cambuur in?
VVV Venlo (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Cambuur (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from VVV Venlo's attack rating (0.71) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (1.25x) against VVV Venlo's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
18%
5.53
21%
4.68
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
VVV Venlo xG
Total xG
2.95
1.97
Cambuur xG
5.53
18%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
14%
7.18
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
3%
39.72
23%
4.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are VVV Venlo and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for VVV Venlo and 1.97 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for VVV Venlo vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
VVV Venlo come into this having played 71 games, going 22W 13D 36L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 2.00 PPG from 71 outings (43W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Cambuur carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
VVV Venlo's home form reads 11W 6D 18L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.89 points per game from 35 outings (20W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cambuur come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
VVV Venlo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.87 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Cambuur in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VVV Venlo
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VVV Venlo and Cambuur in coming into this match?
VVV Venlo have gone 22W 13D 36L in their last 71 games (1.11 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 43W 13D 15L in their last 71 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VVV Venlo at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VVV Venlo at home: 1.11 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.89 PPG.
Have VVV Venlo or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
VVV Venlo have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Cambuur in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 5-0 on 28 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VVV Venlo have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
VVV Venlo
1
Draws
4
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, VVV Venlo have won 1, Cambuur have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VVV Venlo and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when VVV Venlo 3-0 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between VVV Venlo and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
VVV Venlo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VVV Venlo 46%, Cambuur 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (VVV Venlo) and 51% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 34%; VVV Venlo have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VVV Venlo home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VVV Venlo play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of VVV Venlo's recent matches and 51% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VVV Venlo vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of VVV Venlo's recent games and 51% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VVV Venlo and Cambuur tend to score early?
VVV Venlo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VVV Venlo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cambuur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VVV Venlo beat Cambuur 3-0 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.97 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cambuur landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.71 / defence 1.04 against Cambuur attack 1.25 / defence 0.90, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 18% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 61%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a VVV Venlo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 59%, Cambuur 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VVV Venlo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with VVV Venlo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.49 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.