Vitesse 1-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Vitesse face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Jong PSV U21 travel to GelreDome to take on Vitesse in Eerste Divisie (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Vitesse — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Vitesse have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jong PSV U21's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Vitesse 1.10 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 60% and Jong PSV U21 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 60% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.866 / defence 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.011 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.470. Data: built from Vitesse's last 11 games and Jong PSV U21's last 49.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.49 | Draw 3.61 | Jong PSV U21 2.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.36 / 1.70) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Vitesse's last 10 home games and Jong PSV U21's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitesse 90% (last 10 home games) | Jong PSV U21 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 12 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 25 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Vitesse 1.36 / Jong PSV U21 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.866 / def 1.145 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.011 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Jong PSV U21 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 25 October 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Vitesse 1 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 12) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.87) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 11 games and Jong PSV U21's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
29%
3.49
28%
3.61
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.06
1.70
Jong PSV U21 xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.12
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.70 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Vitesse come into this having played 45 games, going 8W 11D 26L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 0.93 PPG from 45 outings (11W 9D 25L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vitesse on 0.78 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Vitesse's home form reads 2W 9D 11L across their last 22 home games, a 0.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong PSV U21 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.62 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 64%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Vitesse (Home) vs Jong PSV U21 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 8W 11D 26L in their last 45 games (0.78 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 9D 25L in their last 45 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.68 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Vitesse have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Vitesse's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vitesse
0
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Jong PSV U21?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Vitesse 3-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Jong PSV U21?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, Jong PSV U21 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Vitesse and 73% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 27% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs Jong PSV U21 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vitesse's games and 59% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Vitesse's matches and 73% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Vitesse and Jong PSV U21 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Vitesse's recent matches and 86% of Jong PSV U21's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Vitesse 1-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.36 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.70 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.01 / defence 1.05, drawn from 11/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 44%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 60%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 0.78 PPG, Jong PSV U21 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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