Telstar 0-0 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ADO Den Haag at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs ADO Den Haag fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Telstar host ADO Den Haag at BUKO Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Telstar — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Telstar's home record at BUKO Stadion: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BUKO Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, ADO Den Haag stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, ADO Den Haag have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Telstar 1.40 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Telstar register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, ADO Den Haag in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Telstar have won 0, ADO Den Haag 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with ADO Den Haag winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Telstar in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Telstar 64% and ADO Den Haag 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 60% | ADO Den Haag 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.42 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.802 / defence 1.306 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.919 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.376. Data: 52 Telstar games / 52 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 33% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 43%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | ADO Den Haag 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ADO Den Haag at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ADO Den Haag offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 60% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: BUKO Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 33% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Telstar 1.42 / ADO Den Haag 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.802 / def 1.306 | ADO Den Haag attack 0.919 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: ADO Den Haag (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.65
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at BUKO Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Telstar 0 - 0 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at BUKO Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Telstar vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 33% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making ADO Den Haag the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Telstar and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
Record (2 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 0 | ADO Den Haag 2W.
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Telstar's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against ADO Den Haag's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ADO Den Haag Win
33%
3.02
24%
4.20
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.07
1.65
ADO Den Haag xG
3.02
33%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
6%
15.73
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.9 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Telstar and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Telstar and 1.65 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Telstar come into this having played 52 games, going 12W 17D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ADO Den Haag sit at 1.77 PPG from 52 outings (27W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Telstar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Telstar's home form reads 6W 7D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, ADO Den Haag have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (13W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ADO Den Haag come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Telstar are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.83 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Telstar have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 12W 17D 23L in their last 52 games (1.02 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or ADO Den Haag away?
ADO Den Haag's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 0.96 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Telstar go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Telstar's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Telstar
4
Draws
3
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and ADO Den Haag?
From 10 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when ADO Den Haag 0-1 Telstar.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 62%, ADO Den Haag 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Telstar and 62% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Telstar's games and 58% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Telstar's matches and 62% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Telstar and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Telstar's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar and ADO Den Haag finished level at 0-0 at BUKO Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.42 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.65 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.4 short of their projected output. ADO Den Haag landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.80 / defence 1.31 against ADO Den Haag attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 33% | Draw 24% | ADO Den Haag 43%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 60%, ADO Den Haag 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.