Roda 2-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 5W 4D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 1.30 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.90 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Roda lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Jong Utrecht 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 61% | Jong Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.06 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.235 / defence 0.809 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.695 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Roda games / 31 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 66% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 13%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Roda (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Jong Utrecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 66% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Roda 2.06 / Jong Utrecht 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.235 / def 0.809 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.695 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Roda (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Roda 2 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 66% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Roda 1W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.24) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.69x) against Roda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.82
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Roda xG
Total xG
2.86
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.82
21%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
13%
7.83
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
2%
59.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Roda and 0.81 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 14W 11D 6L from 31 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 19L across 31 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.00 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Defensively: Roda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 14W 11D 6L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 4D 19L in their last 31 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.73 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Roda or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 47%, Jong Utrecht 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Roda) and 60% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Roda's recent matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Roda's matches and 60% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong Utrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 2-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.06 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.69 / defence 1.32, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 66% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 13%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 61%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.