Roda 4-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Roda face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Roda — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Roda's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Roda are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 1.60 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Roda have won 3, Dordrecht 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended Roda 0–2 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 53% versus Dordrecht 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 48% | Dordrecht 60%). Note also that Dordrecht surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.87 xG and Dordrecht 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.979 / defence 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 1.055 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.300. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.638), which is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 62 games and Dordrecht's last 62.
Result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.68 | Draw 4.07 | Dordrecht 6.29. The model has a clear lean to Roda (60%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Roda 40% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 25 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Roda 1.87 / Dordrecht 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.979 / def 0.638 | Dordrecht attack 1.055 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Roda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Dordrecht xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 9 February 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 4 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 25) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 60% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 62 games and Dordrecht's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
60%
1.68
25%
4.07
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Roda xG
Total xG
2.74
0.88
Dordrecht xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
40.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.0 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Roda and 0.88 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 24W 15D 23L from 62 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 25L across 62 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 15W 6D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 9D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.42 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 24W 15D 23L in their last 62 games (1.40 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 19W 18D 25L in their last 62 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.70 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won Roda 4-0 Dordrecht.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Dordrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 53% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 53% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Roda's recent matches and 80% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Roda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Dordrecht 4-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.87 xG and Dordrecht 0.88 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.98 / defence 0.64 against Dordrecht attack 1.05 / defence 1.19, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 60% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 16%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 48%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, Dordrecht 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Dordrecht (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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