Roda 0-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Roda) versus 0.70 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Roda, 1 for Den Bosch and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Den Bosch 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | Den Bosch 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.44 xG and Den Bosch 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.816 / defence 0.977 | Den Bosch attack 0.709 / defence 1.645. League average goals — home 1.815 / away 1.356. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.645 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Roda games / 71 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 70% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 13%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Den Bosch 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Roda (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.38 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 60% | Den Bosch 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 70% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 56% | xG Roda 2.44 / Den Bosch 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.816 / def 0.977 | Den Bosch attack 0.709 / def 1.645 | league avg home 1.815 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Roda (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Den Bosch xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Den Bosch kick off?
Roda vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Roda 0 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Roda vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Den Bosch part of?
Roda vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 70% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Roda and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.82) and Den Bosch's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.87
13%
7.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Roda xG
Total xG
3.38
0.94
Den Bosch xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
7.91
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
9%
11.43
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
1%
90.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Roda and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Roda and 0.94 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 29W 19D 23L from 71 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 40L across 71 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 17W 9D 9L from 35 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 6W 5D 24L across 35 trips, a 0.66 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.20 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 29W 19D 23L in their last 71 games (1.49 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 23W 8D 40L in their last 71 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Den Bosch away?
Roda's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.71 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Oct 2025, when Roda won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Roda
4
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Den Bosch have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Den Bosch?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Den Bosch 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Roda) and 60% (Den Bosch). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Den Bosch in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Roda's recent matches and 49% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Roda's matches and 60% of Den Bosch's.
Do Roda and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.44 xG and Den Bosch 0.94 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Den Bosch attack 0.71 / defence 1.65, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 70% | Draw 17% | Den Bosch 13%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Den Bosch win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, Den Bosch 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Den Bosch (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.