PEC Zwolle 4-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 meet at MAC³PARK Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
PEC Zwolle's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PEC Zwolle have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PEC Zwolle's home record at MAC³PARK Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — PEC Zwolle register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Jong PSV U21 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 40% versus Jong PSV U21 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 38% | Jong PSV U21 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / defence 1.076 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.943 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.434. Data: 3 PEC Zwolle games / 41 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 39%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Jong PSV U21 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PEC Zwolle 80% | Jong PSV U21 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG PEC Zwolle 1.39 / Jong PSV U21 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 0.905 / def 1.076 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.943 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21?
PEC Zwolle 4 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 36% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from PEC Zwolle's attack rating (0.91) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (0.94x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
36%
2.77
25%
4.00
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
2.85
1.46
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 1.46 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, PEC Zwolle have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 10W 6D 21L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.97 PPG for PEC Zwolle against 1.19 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, PEC Zwolle have posted 0.94 PPG from 18 outings (4W 5D 9L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 4W 5D 9L from 18 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.59 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Early Season
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 10W 6D 21L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 0.94 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
1
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Jong PSV U21 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2023, when Jong PSV U21 3-1 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 56%, Jong PSV U21 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (PEC Zwolle) and 61% (Jong PSV U21).
On the defensive side: PEC Zwolle have failed to score in 33% of games; Jong PSV U21 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of PEC Zwolle's games and 67% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PEC Zwolle's recent games and 61% of Jong PSV U21's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PEC Zwolle and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PEC Zwolle cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Jong PSV U21 4-2 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 1.39 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.46 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. PEC Zwolle beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 36% | Draw 25% | Jong PSV U21 39%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual PEC Zwolle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 38%, Jong PSV U21 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PEC Zwolle 0.97 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PEC Zwolle win broke the near-deadlock. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.