NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Jong Utrecht at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 September 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong Utrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.20 PPG versus Jong Utrecht's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 0, Jong Utrecht 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 51% versus Jong Utrecht 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Jong Utrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.72 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.876 / defence 0.713 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.853 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.337. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 NAC Breda games / 45 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 59% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Jong Utrecht 5.88. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: NAC Breda 50% | Jong Utrecht 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 59% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG NAC Breda 1.72 / Jong Utrecht 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.876 / def 0.713 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.853 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
NAC Breda 3 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 59% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (2 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.88) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.10
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.53
0.81
Jong Utrecht xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
3%
32.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.81 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 45 games, going 19W 11D 15L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.96 PPG from 45 outings (12W 7D 26L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
NAC Breda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 12W 7D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.07 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Jong Utrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 19W 11D 15L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 7D 26L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.95 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.05 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Jong Utrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Jong Utrecht in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 46%, Jong Utrecht 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 68% (Jong Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of NAC Breda's games and 68% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 68% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong Utrecht 3-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.72 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.81 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.88 / defence 0.71 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 59% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 17%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 53%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, NAC Breda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.