NAC Breda 1-1 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Jong Utrecht at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's home record at Rat Verlegh Stadion: 4W 1D 1L from 6 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.17 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Utrecht have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 2W 3D 2L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.30 PPG versus Jong Utrecht's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Jong Utrecht trading profile (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Jong Utrecht 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 64% | Jong Utrecht 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.94 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.236 / defence 0.888 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.879 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 NAC Breda games / 14 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Jong Utrecht 4.17. NAC Breda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 50% | Jong Utrecht 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 54% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG NAC Breda 1.94 / Jong Utrecht 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.236 / def 0.888 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.879 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
NAC Breda 1 - 1 Jong Utrecht.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 54% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (1.24) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong Utrecht's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.54
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.16
1.21
Jong Utrecht xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
3%
29.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.21 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 3D 6L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.29 PPG, Jong Utrecht on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.36 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.17 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Feb 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Jong Utrecht specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Jong Utrecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 83% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 50%, Jong Utrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for NAC Breda and 83% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Jong Utrecht in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of NAC Breda's games and 67% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of NAC Breda's matches and 83% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 16, as NAC Breda and Jong Utrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.94 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.21 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 54% | Draw 22% | Jong Utrecht 24%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 64%, Jong Utrecht 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.29 PPG, Jong Utrecht 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.