NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates NAC Breda at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong PSV U21 make the trip to Rat Verlegh Stadion to face NAC Breda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Form
NAC Breda (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Jong PSV U21 have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jong PSV U21's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jong PSV U21 in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, NAC Breda have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Jong PSV U21 managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2023, ended 5–0 with NAC Breda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both NAC Breda and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
NAC Breda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jong PSV U21 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 73% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 66% | Jong PSV U21 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.98 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.855 / defence 1.126 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.198 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.391. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 NAC Breda games / 73 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 36%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Jong PSV U21 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.86. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.86 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.88) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 60% | Jong PSV U21 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 74% | xG NAC Breda 1.98 / Jong PSV U21 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.855 / def 1.126 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.198 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda 2 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 41% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): NAC Breda 4W | Draws 1 | Jong PSV U21 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.85) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong PSV U21's attack (1.20x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.88.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
41%
2.47
23%
4.33
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.86
1.88
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.47
41%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
15%
6.54
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.88 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.86.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 31W 14D 28L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 21W 16D 36L from 73 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.08 for Jong PSV U21. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (16W 7D 13L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 8W 9D 19L from 36 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.58 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Current Season
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 31W 14D 28L in their last 73 games (1.47 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 21W 16D 36L in their last 73 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.53 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NAC Breda won 0-5 on 4 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
NAC Breda
1
Draws
0
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when NAC Breda 2-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for NAC Breda, 69% for Jong PSV U21 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for NAC Breda and 69% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NAC Breda's games and 69% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of NAC Breda's matches and 69% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do NAC Breda and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Jong PSV U21 2-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.98 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.88 xG, a combined 3.86. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 1.13 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.20 / defence 1.42, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 41% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 36%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 66%, Jong PSV U21 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.47 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.