NAC Breda vs Heracles – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Heracles at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs Heracles fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host Heracles at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Heracles stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Heracles have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Heracles have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.30 PPG versus Heracles's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for NAC Breda, 3 for Heracles and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Heracles in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Heracles 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | Heracles 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.57 xG and Heracles 3.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / defence 1.208 | Heracles attack 1.564 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Heracles have an above-average attack strength of 1.564 — the away xG of 3.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 NAC Breda games / 4 Heracles games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 16% | Draw 15% | Heracles 70%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 6.25 | Draw 6.67 | Heracles 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Heracles (70%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS probability 76% | Total xG 4.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 76% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 3.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heracles at 70% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 86% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 76% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Heracles 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Heracles | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 16% | Draw 15% | Heracles 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% | BTTS 76% | xG NAC Breda 1.57 / Heracles 3.21 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / def 1.208 | Heracles attack 1.564 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Heracles (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
3.21
Heracles xG
76%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Heracles kick off?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs Heracles being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Heracles part of?
NAC Breda vs Heracles is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 16% chance of winning, Heracles a 70% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our model estimates a 76% probability that both NAC Breda and Heracles will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Heracles have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Record (6 meetings): NAC Breda 2W | Draws 1 | Heracles 3W.
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Heracles (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from NAC Breda's attack rating (0.87) and Heracles's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Heracles's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 3.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-3 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (6.8%), 1-4 (5.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 20% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
16%
6.38
15%
6.88
70%
1.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 3
7.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
1 – 4
5.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
4.78
3.21
Heracles xG
6.38
16%
Home win
6.88
15%
Draw
1.43
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
76%
BTTS Yes
1.32
24%
BTTS No
4.16
Clean Sheet
4%
24.75
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
1%
157.97
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.4 |
| 1 | 1.3 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.7 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Our Poisson model rates 1-3 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Heracles expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for NAC Breda and 3.21 for Heracles, a combined total of 4.78.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Heracles?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
NAC Breda come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 12D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Heracles sit at 0.82 PPG from 38 outings (9W 4D 25L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Heracles, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.95 PPG, Heracles on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
NAC Breda's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Heracles have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (4W 1D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Heracles are on 1.34 scored and 2.42 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
Heracles
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Heracles in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Heracles have gone 9W 4D 25L in their last 38 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Heracles away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.21 PPG; Heracles away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
NAC Breda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Heracles specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Heracles
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Heracles?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Heracles have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Heracles last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Heracles?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, Heracles 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 42% for NAC Breda and 79% for Heracles. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 37% of games; Heracles in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Heracles away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Heracles?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 58% of Heracles's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Heracles usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of NAC Breda's matches and 79% of Heracles's.
Do NAC Breda and Heracles tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Heracles in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.