NAC Breda vs FC Volendam – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as NAC Breda welcome FC Volendam to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2026 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
NAC Breda — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Volendam have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Volendam away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — NAC Breda at 1.30 PPG versus FC Volendam's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Volendam 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.2 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with NAC Breda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus FC Volendam 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 53% | FC Volendam 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.82 xG and FC Volendam 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / defence 1.208 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Data: 4 NAC Breda games / 4 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 34%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | FC Volendam 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on NAC Breda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.42 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | FC Volendam 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2026, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 44% | Draw 22% | FC Volendam 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG NAC Breda 1.82 / FC Volendam 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.868 / def 1.208 | FC Volendam attack 0.777 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.59
FC Volendam xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs FC Volendam kick off?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam is scheduled to kick off at 15:45 on Sunday 6 December 2026 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
Where is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam part of?
NAC Breda vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 44% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both NAC Breda and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
Record (4 meetings): NAC Breda 1W | Draws 1 | FC Volendam 2W.
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC Volendam's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
44%
2.30
22%
4.46
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.42
1.59
FC Volendam xG
2.30
44%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
9%
11.30
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.59 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 12D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 1.03 PPG from 38 outings (11W 6D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 0.95 PPG, FC Volendam on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 0.58 points per game from 19 outings (3W 2D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Volendam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Early Season
FC Volendam
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 6D 21L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or FC Volendam away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Volendam away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
NAC Breda's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
NAC Breda
1
Draws
2
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 1, FC Volendam have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when NAC Breda 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 47%, FC Volendam 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (NAC Breda) and 58% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: NAC Breda have failed to score in 37% of games; FC Volendam in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 42% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of NAC Breda's recent games and 58% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do NAC Breda and FC Volendam tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.